Hello from the other side (of the pond)

By Caleb Rhys Walker - Editor-in-Chief 

Emeritus and North America Columnist

This summer has been the most politically boring summer in the UK since 2014. No pandemics, no leaving huge trading blocs, not even a shambolic withdrawal from a middle eastern country. The most exciting thing politically in the UK was three by-elections on the same day: it takes a real politics nerd to get excited about that (stay tuned for a forthcoming article). However, things have been very different on the other side of the pond - that is the USA. A former President is being tried (or at least indicted) and meanwhile other Republicans are battling it out (with Trump and each other) to become the Republican candidate to challenge Joe Biden, yes, 80 year old Joe Biden, for the White House next November. I have spent the summer watching interviews, listening to podcasts and chatting with Americans to try and get an idea of what is going on (difficult) and what is going to happen (basically impossible). Since then candidates have battled it out on the debate stage, most recently on September 27th in California to try and gain support from the Republican electorate.

Who was on the stage:

The main alternative to Trump at the moment appears to be Ron DeSantis - current Florida Governor. This is despite a collapse in support among the Republican primary electorate since earlier this year. His pitch to Republican voters is “MAGA without the mess” - essentially suggesting he can deliver a Trump agenda without the scandal and with a bit more competence. Admittedly he has won Florida (traditionally a swing state) twice in a row and won Republican support during COVID-19  for keeping Florida out of lockdown. Personally I have a degree of scepticism about DeSantis - he is coming under a lot of media scrutiny and his poll ratings are dropping (from within two percentage points of Trump in February to just 13% currently). His campaign launch with Elon Musk and a tech investor also got off to a bad start with technical issues and a lot more political detail than expected (DeSantis is clearly more of a constitution and legislation nerd than I am). Voters also see him as less charismatic than other candidates (his advisors allegedly had to write LIKEABLE at the top of his notes for debate preparation) and he struggles to seem at ease chatting to people while campaigning. Nevertheless, if he is in a two-horse race against Trump, and can unite both the anti-Trump vote and the post-Trump vote (those who still like Trump but want to move on) he could have a reasonable chance. 

Trump currently tends to poll at about 50-60% for Republicans, DeSantis has mid teens while all the other candidates barely have single-digit support. However, they shouldn't be ignored not only because as I see it DeSantis’ support is ‘squishy’ (mostly because he currently looks like the main alternative to Trump) but also because if Trump’s opposition is divided then Trump becomes the nominee. It's that simple. The only way that Trump can be defeated is if most other candidates drop out as soon as they have damaged Trump as much as they can (looking at you Christie) or it is clear that they can’t win. 

Running in nearly joint third place are Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy. Haley - the former South Carolina Governor and Trump’s Ambassador to the United Nations - has had strong debate performances and is quickly becoming the preferred candidate of the Republican donor class (unless Virginia governor Glen Youngkin decides to run after the Virginia Legislature elections). Her strong foreign policy credentials, feisty and polished debate technique and compelling backstory as daughter of Indian-American immigrants have won her increasing support - particularly from college-educated and more affluent Republicans. Haley would be my preferred candidate currently, not that it makes any difference.

Ramaswamy in contrast entered the race as a dark horse candidate - almost nobody knew him. As a former biotech billionaire and entrepreneur, Ramaswamy entered the primaries having never held political positions before. His strident ‘anti-woke’ positions on climate change, gender identity and secularism has earned him support from post-Trump MAGA republicans - not surprising given his outspoken support for Trump despite running against him. Similar to Haley in many ways - Ramaswamy is a son of Indian-American immigrants, has had strong debate performances and seeks to present himself as the future of the Republican party - going so far as to rap along to Eminem during a campaign event. Ramaswamy’s momentum is perhaps best summarised by former Republican strategist Sarah Longwell who said that “Of the voters that were interested in moving on from Trump (a clear minority), many of their heads were saying DeSantis, but their hearts are saying Vivek”.

The best known ‘minor’ candidate is Mike Pence, Trump’s former Vice President. He has lost standing with Trump voters after he refused to back up Trump’s claim that the election was stolen. His debate performances appear slow but presidential, however, this is unlikely to endear him to the baying mobs who called for his hanging on January 4th.

There was also quite a lot of support for Tim Scott when he first  joined the race. As the only black Republican senator, Scott  has garnered support as a new optimistic voice in the Republican party. Nevertheless, with faltering poll numbers and weak debate performances one wonders how much longer he will last. He shares the stage with human torpedo Chris Christie who was governor of (typically Democrat) New Jersey and was very popular in 2019. Christie backed Trump in 2016 after he dropped out of the race himself, but has since changed his tune on Trump, seeing it as his mission to destroy the Trump campaign (he quite effectively destroyed Marco Rubio’s chances in 2016) and I am certainly looking forward to see what he does even if at this point he has basically no chance of winning the nomination. The final candidate on the debate stage was Doug Bergum, former North Dakota governor who has launched a lack-lustre campaign built around his gubernatorial record,  state rights, and small town values. The chances of any of these three becoming the nominee are slim - with stronger candidates pulling ahead and Trump dominating in the polls.

So what happened on the stage?

A few days ago eight of the leading nine candidates met on stage in the second debate of the Republican primaries. If the first debate changed little about the primary, the second changed even less. All of the candidates appeared to have been informed by their advisors to ensure more airtime and as a result chaos ensued with interruptions frequent and aggressive. This was in part exacerbated by the time limits placed by the moderators - two minutes to answer a question and only 30 seconds to respond if mentioned. As highlight moments go Nikki Haley’s “Every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber” to Ramaswamy has to take the crown. Christie’s typical to camera attack on Trump - describing him as ‘Donald Duck’ for ‘ducking the debate’ was funny but was less biting than it could have been. Striking also was the general reluctance to suggest who they would get rid of if they had to ‘vote one candidate off the island’ as requested by the moderators - though my feeling would be many of them were itching to write down Ramaswamy’s name. There was also an heated but odd debate between the two South Carolinians - Haley and Scott - which appeared to centre around the purchase of $50,000 curtains. That these are the headline moments gives you the gist of the debate - not uneventful but unlikely to make any key change to the overall dynamics of the primary.

Post debate polling by J.L. Partners shows that the largest group of watchers - 35% - saw  Vivek Ramaswamy as the winner, followed by 24% for Ron Desantis and 11% for Mike Pence. In terms of losers Chris Christie was identified by the largest group of voters, 24%, followed by Mike Pence with 11% (matching his negative rating). Haley - coming out of a strong first debate, despite having a few strong moments, was only seen as the winner by 7% of those watching according to JL Partners, although polling by Ipsos placed her second with 18% ranking her as the best performer. As I mentioned, the debate is unlikely to change much about the overall polling in the race - meaning that the debate was essentially a win for Donald Trump. Unless some of the candidates drop out and coalesce around a particular figure - probably Haley or DeSantis - then Trump has a clear road to victory. This is also the view of a plurality of debate watchers who saw Trump as the main winner of the debate. He clearly is already fighting the general election by pivoting to more moderate abortion positions and appearing with striking auto workers in the Rust Belt.

Fundamentally the state of US politics is quite depressing - the 2024 General Election is likely to be a rerun of the last one: Trump vs Biden all over again. The Republicans on the debate stage have done nothing so far which is likely to change that. The fact that the current president is older than John Major is currently is unlikely to change that. The fact that the likely Republican candidate is facing 92 charges in the courts and arguably led an uprising to overthrow democracy is unlikely to change that. Americans will face a tough choice in the next general election - it could go either way. But one thing we can be almost certain of is that the Republican primary is essentially already won by Trump and the others are merely playing for VP, trying to increase their public image or having a practise run for 2028.