The US election is in less than a year and political punditry has moved up a gear. Analysts are frantically analysing (as analysts tend to) questions over whether Trump can win, will it be a rerun of last time and whether Biden’s age is hurting him in the polls. In an effort to think through things and hold multiple factors in my head at the same time I have decided to add my penny’s worth to the mix.

I feel like political discourse has moved up a gear regarding next year’s US elections. We are now less than a year out and the public are beginning to realise who the candidates will be. I’ll put it bluntly. It will be Trump vs Biden again - and the polling is not great for Biden. This does not mean Trump will win - but a recent Times/Siena Poll put Trump ahead of Biden in 5 out of 6 of the crucial swing states (Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania for those asking). Biden won all of these states in 2020.

Now before I continue I should explain how US elections are decided. Essentially each state is worth a certain number of points based upon the population. If you win a majority in a state you get all of these points for that state. There are fifty states and a total of 538 points available - that means that you need 270 points (or votes in the electoral college as it is known) although the last president to get under 300 and still win was George Bush in 2004. Most states vote reliably for one side or the other so this means that elections often come down to a small number of ‘swing states’ and the small number of voters in these states who could vote for either side. It also matters whether voters stay at home or not - if Biden 2020 voters stay at home then Trump's job will be a lot easier.

Now there are a few crucial points to bear in mind when looking at polling this far out from an election. The first is that polls are rarely predictive this far out. They tell us what the public think now - although this can be useful for guessing what the result will be next year. The standard margin of error for polls taken a year before an election is 25% (although since 2016 that has dropped to about 10% ). Needless to say, that is really high. However, we should also bear in mind that polarisation means that there is less voter movement overall and the group of swing voters has gotten smaller and smaller. We should also bear in mind that both Trump and Biden are known entities - both have appeared on ballots before and have been president before. This is the first time in modern history that two former presidents will be running against each other. This could suggest that the polling is slightly more reliable than usual.

On the flip side of this you have the fact that Trump is only reliable in his unpredictability and that his polling is perpetually confusing. He has been indicted on over 90 counts in a variety of cases - dodgy financial dealings, taking confidential documents, incitement of rebellion. Despite this his popularity, at least amongst Republicans, has increased during the criminal proceedings. Similarly Trump’s popularity, at least amongst swing voters, may have been benefited by his lack of action on the campaign trail and (apart from the court cases) lack of news coverage. A conviction in court or increased public scrutiny as he begins to make comments and commitments could potentially damage his numbers going into an election.

Biden’s Poll Drop - So why is Biden, who beat Trump in 2020, so unpopular? There are a few factors including his age and the economy. Firstly, Biden is old. We’ve all seen the clips. You can have a debate over whether Biden has achieved things (and he has) but that doesn’t change the fact that voters think he is elderly. He falls off bikes, he trips going up steps, he can’t always speak coherently. And the whole ‘Trump is also old’ shtick is ineffective. It's not even worth trying. Maybe Trump is basically as old as Biden on paper but he has energy and is funny and shouts. He doesn’t come across as old. Biden does and there is a real worry amongst voters that he will not be able to effectively fulfil the role of President.

Voters also think the economy is bad. They say their financial situation has gotten worse, 30% say they have had to forgo a major purchase in the last year and they are still getting over last year’s inflation. This is despite an economy that is improving by nearly all measures - inflation dropping, unemployment is low, real wages are up, the economy is growing and yet voters are still grumpy. Now it is important to note that people are still genuinely suffering and the economy is not perfect. However, the analysis of one focus group participant that this is “worse than the great depression” is hilariously far from the truth.

So why the mismatch? Firstly, voters remember pre-COVID. They remember the lower prices and even if their wages are catching up the number that is on their receipt is still higher than they are used to. Secondly, fewer people can afford aspirational stuff. People are having to take less nice holidays, eat out less or be more careful with their groceries even if the main stats don’t show this. Thirdly, everything is polarised. Republicans feel like they cannot say anything nice about Biden or his economy. So basically the best number Biden could hope for is 55%. Even if the economy does improve significantly it seems unlikely that Biden would profit too much. My penny’s worth is that annoyance over the economy is in large part just voters expressing disapproval in Biden by blaming him for their financial situation.

So if the economy is not the crucial factor (although voters do tend to look back favourably on Trump’s economic record) why is Biden’s popularity suffering? Biden’s electoral coalition is slowly fraying in different directions. His support among black and hispanic voters is declining. These voters on the whole tend to be more socially conservative and feel left-behind by elite institutions and economic growth. But there is also an increasing feeling amongst voters of colour that they have been taken for granted by Democrats and have little to show for it. What remains to be seen is whether these voters will come back into the fold in a general election or would they go elsewhere. Just a small drop in voters of colour for Biden could spell trouble, particularly in states such as Arizona, North Carolina and Florida with large non-white voting blocks.

Biden is also slowly haemorrhaging support from young voters - for a variety of reasons. Young liberal voters are typically far more pro-Palestine than Joe Biden and the current government. The Israel-Palestine conflict was always going to split Biden’s base and had he taken an alternative point of view it probably would have been more politically damaging for him anyway. Nevertheless, feeds into a general malaise towards Biden from younger voters who feel that an octogenarian president has not been fighting for them as he could have. Younger voters also tend to feel underrepresented in politics and part of the ‘out group’ a group who have been increasingly trended towards republicans and Trump in particular. This is not to say that young voters are a reliable voter bloc for Biden, he will probably still win them by a significant margin, but any slip with these voters - either voting for Trump or, more likely, staying at home - could cause him significant electoral issues in 2024.

There is also the question of third party candidates. This is a particularly interesting one this year with a slew of candidates from across the political spectrum. The announced candidates include Robert F Kennedy Jr -a vaccine-sceptic, mildly conspiracy theorist relative of the Kennedy family - and Cornel West, a neo-marxist academic who originally sought Green Party nomination but is now running as an independent candidate. It also seems likely that No Labels - a centrist political organisation - will put forward a presidential ticket with a Republican for President and Democrat as vice president. There is also rumour that Joe Manchin, a centrist former Democratic senator from West Virginia might consider running.

These candidates are all bad news for Biden. Historically speaking third-party candidates tend to take votes from an incumbent, or even act as a spoiler - where they prevent their politically closer candidate from winning by stealing their votes and letting the alternative candidate win. This potentially happened in 1992 when Ross Perot gained nearly 19% of the popular vote - arguably preventing George HW Bush from being reelected President (although this is disputed by some analysts). The general principle is that third party candidates tend to hurt incumbents seeking reelection - this is Biden primarily although Trump does play the role of incumbent to some extent. Both of these are very unpopular candidates so there is a lot of scope for third party success (not to be confused by victory - a third party candidate will not win). It is likely that the majority of the votes that go to any of these third-party candidates will come from the 2020 anti-Trump coolition and therefor hurt Biden’s chance of winning.

Talking of the anti-Trump coolition, it is worthwhile spending a moment discussing voting coalitions. The crucial point is that the pro-Biden coalition is small - too small to really win the election. This means that if the election can be turned into a referendum on Biden then he will lose. If it becomes a referendum on Trump then he has a better chance - last time they tried this it worked. This does not guarantee a win but it is more likely than anything else. If it turns into a question of who did a better job as president Trump would probably win that also.

Now for a UK audience this is staggering - how can over 50% of the US population vote for someone who claimed the election was ‘stolen’? Who is arguably responsible for an armed insurrection of Congress? Who has threatened to withdraw from NATO? However, it is important to remember that normal people in the US vote for Trump. Not all republican voters are MAGA supporting, gun-wielding, election-denying rednecks as is often imagined. Trump has support from middle-class evangelical voters, some business elites and a significant proportion of Hispanics in Florida (to name just a few other groups). On top of this the hyperpartisan (or polarised) nature of US democracy means that for most people, if you are a republican voter you vote republican, regardless of the candidate. It has been said that a donkey with a red rosette could win 40% of the vote in the USA. This means that the election could be very close - who wins in swing states is still up in the air and Trump’s likely victory relies on normal people voting Trump.

But before I close it ought to be noted that Something could happen. That Something could be any number of things but it could significantly affect the polls. It could be that Trump gets found guilty or is imprisoned.  It could be that Biden has a nasty health incident, or Trump - who is not much younger - could also. Some scandal could come out. A crisis in Taiwan could spark strange unpredictable national sentiment. The economy could improve significantly. Either of them could be unexpectedly (and this would be very unexpected) defeated in a primary. Any of these things could have a significant effect on the outcome of the election - and some are possible, if not likely.

These possibilities aside, voters are unhappy about their current circumstances and unhappy about the choice being laid before them. Both Trump and Biden are unpopular - one because of the economy and age and the other for trying to overturn an election. America is polarised like never before. And we are heading for an almighty close, and significant election in 2024.